A massive new nationwide poll, surveying more than 20,000 people across the country, has shown that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party are firmly on course to dethrone the Conservative Party, and look increasingly likely to become the dominant force in British politics over the coming years and decades.
The new survey, conducted by one of the most accurate pollsters in the run-up to the 2017 General Election, Survation, shows that Labour would consolidate their massive gains in last year’s election, with 40% of respondents indicating their intention was to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s party.
In comparison, 39% of respondents said they would vote for the Conservative party in a forthcoming hypothetical General Election, 8% for the Liberal Democrats, 2% for the Green Party, and 3% each for the SNP and UKIP.
Updated Westminster voting intention. Due to the sample size, the very different margin of error means comps to our last published polling are not useful. Details and data tables: https://t.co/sjyINvALQw pic.twitter.com/rIDAE4LXNk
— Survation. (@Survation) November 9, 2018
On Survation’s predictions, Labour would become the ruling Party, but would require a coalition with the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party to form a working majority in Parliament.
If replicated in a general election, these figures and our most recent Scotland only voting intention figures would produce the following type of seat estimates, using a simple model – Baxter's strong transition model in this example: pic.twitter.com/w6mTxRkHbc
— Survation. (@Survation) November 9, 2018
However, when you dig down into the detail of Survation’s far-reaching survey, an absolutely devastating scenario appears to be unfolding for the current Conservative Party, whilst Labour’s future looks decidedly rosy.
One astounding statistic shows that, amongst women of all ages across Britain, the Conservative Party’s numbers are utterly terrible, with just 21.8% of women indicating their support for the Tories.
In comparison, Jeremy Corbyn’s appeal to females was a staggering 10.9% higher that Theresa May’s party, with 32.7% of all female respondents saying they intended to vote for the the Labour Party.
Conversely, 35.17% of all males said they would vote Tory, compared to 27.58% for Labour.
But, when you look at the generational divide between the two parties, an impending catastrophe is undoubtedly awaiting the Conservative Party in the near future.
With younger people, Labour’s lead over the Tories is absolutely monstrous, with 43.3% of 18-24 years supporting Jeremy Corbyn’s party, compared to just 11.56% of the youngest voting block supporting the Tories.
In fact, whilst in previous polls Labour’s lead had tailed off somewhat as the age of respondents increased, Survation’s poll indicates that a huge and potentially decisive change is taking place.
In terms of the age of respondents, Labour’s lead over the Tories fully encompasses 18-year-olds, all the way up to 55-year-olds – a consistent lead amongst a full 37-years of the voting public.
The Conservative Party’s support amongst older people has always been strong, but this latest Survation poll indicates that their core support is beginning to – for want of a better phrase – dying out.
In the 55-65 age bracket, the Tories’ lead over Labour only now stands at around 10%, with 34.83% of 55-64 year old respondents supporting the Tories, and 24.23% supporting Labour.
Support amongst 65-74 year olds stood at 45.99% to the Tories and 18% to Labour, whilst over 75s preferred the Conservative Party over Labour by 54% to 12%.
However, when you take into account the fact that the average life expectancy in the UK is around 81 years old, this means that the Tories’ core support only encompasses 26 years of the voting public, compared to 37 years for Labour.
And, as the Tories’ core older support continues to die off, it will inevitably result in Labour continuing to increase their lead over the Conservative Party – a pattern which, unless miraculous and unprecedented changes occur within either party, now appears to be virtually unstoppable.
The one thing that did appear to be in the Tories’ favour was the fact that younger people were less likely to turn out on voting day, whilst older people turned out almost without fail. However, with Corbyn’s policies appearing to enthuse younger generations, this trend also now appears to be shifting.
Furthermore, in yet more bad news for the Tories, it is Evolve’s firm belief that their poll numbers are being boosted by a hardcore pro-Brexit vote who are almost certainly only lending their support to the party to ensure Britain’s exit from the European Union goes through.
Once the UK has finally left the EU, these supporters are extremely likely to simply withdraw their support from the Tories, decreasing Theresa May’s poll numbers even more and leaving the path clear for a Labour majority.
In contrast, Labour’s core vote appears to stable, and based almost exclusively on the party’s domestic policies, with only marginal emphasis placed on the party’s position on Brexit.
All in all, the future looks decidedly bleak for the Conservative Party, and increasingly bright for Labour.
