The Labour Party have closed the polling gap between themselves and the Conservative Party to just seven points – with Jeremy Corbyn’s party recording their highest poll rating since April, and also benefiting from a huge surge of support in Wales.
The latest Westminster voting intention poll conductd by ICM Research puts the Conservative Party down one point to 41%, whilst Labour saw a two point rise to 34%.
These latest figures are in comparison to ICM’s previous poll conducted on November 18th, which was carried out before Labour had released their manifesto and the live TV debates had begun.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-)
BREX: 4% (-1)via @ICMResearch, 22 – 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ 18 NovSee more:https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 25, 2019
This represents the first time Jeremy Corbyn’s party have polled over 34% for 7 months, and the latest poll boost comes off the back of successful appearances by the Labour leader in live televised debates and a manifesto which was received warmly by the public.
In addition to the ICM poll, Labour have also seen a significant boost in support in Wales, as a YouGov poll shows the party surging a full nine points since their last survey was conducted in early November.
Welsh Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 38% (+9)
CON: 32% (+4)
PC: 11% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-3)
BREX: 8% (-7)
GRN: 1% (-2)via @YouGov, 22 – 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ early Novhttps://t.co/4RmeKio411More polls:https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 25, 2019
Many had suspected that the gap between the two main parties would inevitably tighten as the General Election date got nearer, but ICM’s latest poll puts Jeremy Corbyn’s party closer to the Tories than they were at the same stage in the 2017 General Election campaign.
Even on the eve of the 2017 General Election, many pollsters put the gap between Labour and the Tories at higher than seven points:
For those despairing at the polls, look at what they predicted on the eve of the 2017 General Election.
Also, all polls published this weekend were conducted amid manifesto launch and debates.
From our research and what we’re hearing on the ground, the gap is around 6 points. pic.twitter.com/dTCUaxl45T
— Evolve Politics (@evolvepolitics) November 23, 2019
The latest surge in Labour support will surely set nerves jangling within the Conservative Party, as a repeat of the 2017 General Election result – or even worse for them – now appears to be on the cards.
In addition to Labour’s poll boost, almost 3 million people – including huge numbers of young people – have registered to vote since the General Election campaign got underway.
With young people far more likely to back Labour, the surge in registrations is widely seen as a positive for Jeremy Corbyn’s party, and a potential banana skin for the Tories.
The final deadline voter registration is tomorrow. You can register to vote in a matter of minutes via this link.
