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Translated into seats, this would mean that Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons, gaining another forty-six seats at the expense of the Tories and the SNP and leaving them only eighteen seats short of a parliamentary majority. With this latest projection putting the Scottish National Party on twenty-nine seats, according to the Electoral Calculus, a comfortable coalition would be well within reach for Jeremy Corbyn, as opposed to the shambolic deal the Conservatives are trying to hash together with the far-right DUP.
Westminster voting intention:
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 18, 2017
Moreover, several high-profile Tories stand to lose their seats if another election was held today. Labour came incredibly close to dethroning Amber Rudd on June 8th, and the latest Survation poll indicates that she would almost definitely lose her seat if there was another election in the near future. Not only that, but Anna Soubry, Stephen Crabb, former DWP axeman Iain Duncan Smith and Justine Greening would also lose their seats. Interestingly, Labour would continue to make gains in Scotland, taking control of Glasgow from the SNP. Former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron would lose his seat to the Conservatives.
This is another boost for Jeremy Corbyn, who according to YouGov, is now the most popular party leader in the country. Corbyn and Labour have overtaken Theresa May and the Conservatives in approval ratings. Put into context, this change in fortune is nothing short of remarkable, and a testament to Corbyn and Labour’s election campaign over the last two months. At the time Theresa May called this snap-election, her net approval rating was +10%, with Jeremy Corbyn’s at -42%.
It is clear that team Corbyn’s thesis was correct: as soon as the public saw the policies Corbyn had to offer, as well as his authentic and compassionate character compared to Theresa May’s cruel policies and robotic soundbites – public opinion would change at a rate unseen in British political history. This election was another huge shock to the establishment, and the best bit is that Labour are only just getting started. As Corbyn tells Labour to remain in “permanent campaign mode”, he is pitching up at 65 Tory marginals in the coming weeks and months in anticipation of another election. If Labour can sustain momentum in the polls and put enough pressure on Theresa May that her coalition of chaos collapses, Jeremy Corbyn could be knocking on the doors of Number 10 within a year. All speculation, yes, but one thing for certain? The Conservative should be incredibly worried about the coming months and years, as there is plenty of trouble on the way for Theresa May.