Following a catastrophic defeat for the government on their crucial Brexit bill in the House of Commons this evening, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a Vote of No Confidence against Theresa May’s government.
The government has allowed time for the motion to be debated tomorrow, and if a majority of MPs vote in favour of it, Theresa May’s government would almost certainly collapse.
As things stand, the Parliamentary maths appears to be marginally in favour of the Theresa May, with the DUP – the party who prop up her minority administration – already indicating that they will support the government.
The European Research Group (ERG) – the pro-Brexit group chaired by Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg – have also indicated that they will be directing their members, consisting of around 80 Tory MPs, to support the government.
Sources within the Conservative Party have previously indicated that any Tory MP supporting a motion of No Confidence in the government would face deselection by their local constituency parties.
The Conservative Patry and the DUP have a combined majority of 327 MPs, and if no Tory MPs rebel against the government, Theresa May would remain safe for the time being.
However, there is no limit on how many motions of No Confidence the opposition is allowed to table against the government, meaning that Labour could continually put them forward until the maths changed to enable a win.
During her time in opposition, the former Tory leader Margaret Thatcher needed to table five motions of No Confidence in James Callaghan’s minority government over the space of an entire year before finally succeeding in 1979.
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